Future Shock by BP

July 13, 2007

Future Shock
Top 100 Stock Check

by Kevin Goldstein

Origin： http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6448

41. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Red Sox, 22
Eligible Next Year? Most likely
Stock Movement Since Ranking: Up, like crazy up

The jump in stuff that we saw at the end of last year became permanent, as Buchholz blossomed from "just" one of the better righty pitching prospects around to arguably the best after posting a 1.77 ERA in 86.2 innings for Double-A Portland, boosted by 116 strikeouts and just 55 hits allowed.

48. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox, 23
Eligible Next Year? Probably
Stock Movement Since Ranking: Unchanged

Ellsbury was the hottest hitter in the minors for the first two weeks of the season, batting .452/.518/.644 in 17 games for Double-A Portland, but he came down to earth at Triple-A Pawtucket with a .286/.361/.380 line. And that’s the question--will he hit .300+? That is what's needed to make up for his lack of power and only average walk rate.

86. Michael Bowden, RHP, Red Sox, 20
Eligible Next Year? Yes
Stock Movement Since Ranking: Unchanged

Two months ago, this would have been a 'Way up' after Bowden ripped through the Cal League with a 1.37 ERA in eight games. Things haven’t gone as well at Double-A Portland, as Bowden has a 5.11 mark in 10 starts, and his control has gone south.


BP對三位小紅襪的評價還真是差強人意...

而Rotoworld出來的這篇

Origin：http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&articleid=28522

by Matthew Pouliot

4. Clay Buchholz - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 08/14/84 - ETA: May 2008
Previous rankings: mid-2006 #122, 2007 #45

7-2, 1.77 ERA, 55 H, 116/22 K/BB in 86 2/3 IP for Double-A Portland

With more than twice as many strikeouts as hits allowed in Double-A this year, Buchholz has the best case as the top pitching prospect in the minors. His control isn't quite as good as the 5:1 K:BB ratio suggests, but he is very good at putting his offspeed pitches where he wants them. It's fastball command that can sometimes be a problem for him. He won't be able to overpower major league hitters quite like he has his opponents in the Eastern League, so he'll need to improve in that area in order to help the Red Sox next year. There's a slight chance that the Red Sox will break him in as a reliever down the stretch, just like they did with Jonathan Papelbon in 2005. However, they're concerned enough about his workload that they might prefer he be shut down after the minor league season ends. A debut in the first half of 2008 seems likely. He projects as a long-term No. 2.


15. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF Red Sox - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: April 2008
Previous rankings: 2006 #138, mid-2006 #67, 2007 #42

.452/.518/.644, 0 HR, 13 RBI, 7/6 K/BB, 8 SB in 73 AB for Double-A Portland
.286/.361/.380, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 26/23 K/BB, 23 SB in 213 AB for Triple-A Pawtucket
.375/.444/.438, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 16 AB for Boston

The left-handed-hitting Ellsbury isn't really the new Johnny Damon, but he could prove to be nearly as valuable of a player, partly because he'll be a better defender. If only he had a better arm, he could be a Gold Glove candidate someday. On offense, he's a true leadoff hitter. He might be good for 10 homers per year, but most of his extra-base hits will be doubles. The majority of his value will come in the form of a .280-.300 average and .360-.370 OBP. The Red Sox may trade Coco Crisp this winter if Ellsbury turns in a big second half in Triple-A.


35. Michael Bowden - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 09/09/86 - ETA: 2009
Previous rankings: 2007 #97

2-0, 1.37 ERA, 35 H, 46/8 K/BB in 46 IP for Single-A Lancaster
3-4, 5.11 ERA, 53 H, 39/23 K/BB in 49 1/3 IP for Double-A Portland

Lancaster has a history of chewing up and spitting out pitching prospects, so much so that the Red Sox got extra aggressive with Buchholz and had him open the season at Portland. Bowden, though, started off at Lancaster and had no problem at all with the ridiculous conditions. Double-A has proven to the tougher test for him, as he's battled control problems for the first time. Bowden throws in the low-90s and has an excellent curveball. He needs a better changeup or he's going to give up a lot of homers to left-handed hitters. Assuming there are no arm woes causing his command troubles, he should begin to adjust to Double-A any week now. He projects as a No. 3.